Approach to Risk Management and Position Sizing

Effective risk management and precise position sizing are essential for achieving the goal. No matter how much analysis is done, it won’t suffice without these crucial elements

“Your goal is not risk avoidance but risk management: to mitigate risk and have a significant degree of control over the possibility and amount of loss.” –Mark Minervini

When it comes to successful trading, mastering risk management and position sizing is paramount. Renowned trader Mark Minervini emphasizes disciplined strategies to safeguard capital and optimize returns. Let’s delve into his approach with a practical example.

Risk Management Rules:

1. Limit Your Losses: Have predetermined exit points to minimize losses.
2. Cut Losses Quickly: Exit losing trades promptly to prevent significant declines.
3. Protect Your Capital: Prioritize capital preservation above all else.
4. Don’t Risk Too Much: Avoid risking more than a small percentage of total capital per trade.
5. Stay Flexible: Adapt strategies to changing market conditions.
6. Avoid Emotional Decisions: Keep emotions in check; base decisions on analysis.
7. Use Stop Loss Orders: Enforce risk management by setting automatic exit points.
8. Stick to Your Plan: Consistently follow a predefined trading plan.

Position Sizing Method:

1. Calculate Position Size: Determine trade size based on a small percentage of total capital.
2. Consider Stop Loss Placement: Adjust position size based on stop loss distance.
3. Adjust for Volatility: Account for asset volatility when sizing positions.
4. Account for Portfolio Diversification: Spread capital across multiple trades to mitigate risk.
5. Monitor and Reassess: Review positions regularly and adjust sizing as needed.
6. Be Disciplined: Consistently adhere to position sizing rules.

Sure, let’s walk through an example using  risk management and position sizing methods.

Assumptions:

• Starting capital: Rs. 100,000
• Risk per trade: 2% of total capital
• Win rate: 40%
• Average risk-reward ratio: 1:3 (for every rupee risked, aiming to make 3 rupees)

Based on these assumptions, let’s calculate how the strategy might perform over the next 100 trades.

1. Position Size Calculation:
   • Risk per trade = 2% of Rs. 100,000 = Rs. 2,000
   • Given the risk-reward ratio of 1:3, the potential reward for each trade would be 3 times the risk. So, potential reward per trade = Rs. 2,000 * 3 = Rs. 6,000
2. Trade Simulation:
   • With a 40% win rate, out of 100 trades, we expect to win 40 trades and lose 60 trades.
   • For winning trades:
     • 40 trades * Rs. 6,000 (potential reward) = Rs. 240,000
   • For losing trades:
     • 60 trades * Rs. 2,000 (risk per trade) = Rs. 120,000
   • Net profit from winning trades: Rs. 240,000 – Rs. 120,000 = Rs. 120,000
   • Net profit from losing trades: Rs. 0 (since we’re risking 2% per trade, and all losing trades would incur the same loss amount)
3. Overall Outcome:
   • Total capital after 100 trades = Starting capital + Net profit from winning trades
   • Total capital = Rs. 100,000 + Rs. 120,000 = Rs. 220,000

So, after 100 trades with a 40% win rate and a risk-reward ratio of 1:3, the total capital would increase to Rs. 220,000.

Here’s a simplified trade log for illustration:

 

n this trade log, we can see a mix of winning and losing trades. Despite only winning 40% of the trades, the net profit after 15 trades is still positive, demonstrating the effectiveness of disciplined risk management and position sizing methods.

For more in-depth insights into Mark Minervini’s strategies, consider reading his book “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard”.